Current federal commitments to health care are on a course to consume an ever larger share of the budget. New subsidies bring two forms of risk to the federal budget which could either exacerbate or moderate this trend. First, there is the financial risk that can be anticipated at the time health care reform happens. Second, there is the risk that things will turn out differently than expected.

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US President Donald Trump reacts after signing executive orders imposing tariffs on imported goods in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)