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Japan’s first minority government in three decades faces dynamic domestic and international challenges. For Tokyo to navigate these major security, diplomatic, and economic issues, policymakers will need to understand perspectives from across the Japanese political spectrum.

Japan Chair Kenneth R. Weinstein will moderate a bipartisan panel featuring Japanese Diet members: Itsunori Onodera, Shinijiro Koizumi, and Kimi Onoda of the Liberal Democratic Party; and Koichiro Gemba of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. They will discuss how the Japanese government should approach domestic political questions, its partnership with America, and Japan’s role in the world.

Episode Transcript

This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.

Ken Weinstein:

Good afternoon, and welcome to �����, and welcome to today’s very special program. I’m Ken Weinstein, Japan Chair here at �����. And delighted, especially want to give a very big thanks to our friends at the Mount Fuji Dialogue and especially Hinaka Kato for helping us pull this event together with them during the Golden Week Mount Fuji Dialogue visit here in Washington DC.

Our theme for today, as you know, is Domestic Politics, the US-Japan Alliance, and Tokyo’s global Role: A Bipartisan View From The Japanese Diet. And as many of us know, the Ishiba government is Japan’s first minority government in three decades and its government is in office at a time of dynamic domestic and international challenges. To examine major security, diplomatic and economic issues, I’m delighted to welcome an all-star cast of Diet members, Koichiro Gemba, Itsunori Onodera, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Kimi Onoda from across the Japanese political spectrum to offer their perspectives on Japan and US-Japan relations at this critical moment.

Now we’ll begin, I want to ask the Diet members to kindly take a seat on the stage and we will begin momentarily. Now the first Diet member we have the honor of hearing from is, of course, Koichiro Gemba, who is the Vice Speaker of the Lower House of the Japanese Diet. He is an eleven-term Diet member from Fukushima and he is an independent, he was in the Constitutional Democratic Party until his election as Vice Speaker, and he’s an old friend, I’m delighted to welcome him to �����. Mr. Vice Speaker.

Koichiro Gemba:

Thank you. I am Koichiro Gemba, thank you for that introduction. I am the Vice Speaker of the House of Representatives. It’s difficult for me to talk about topics that have to do with the political situation, but looking at the paper I saw bipartisan consensus, interparty consensus, especially between the US and Japan. Is there such a consensus or not? That is what I saw in advance, and I have three things to say on that subject. I believe that LDP believes the same as the Constitutional Democratic Party on this, but for Japan, the Trump administration has now been set up, but we have to have pride and advocate for the rule of law and free trade, universal values, to continue to advocate for them. We believe this continues to be the case and I believe that is a multi-party consensus.

Second point, even in Europe, it’s said that the US is inward-looking, only thinking about itself, is not reliable. I think there are a lot of countries thinking this. For Japan, it will be important to try to make sure that the US doesn’t become even more isolationist and to try to strengthen US involvement. This too is likely something that multiple parties in Japan espouse. Third point, on the other hand, in the post-war period, the international order has existed, and when it comes to its revision, especially aspects pointed out by President Trump exist to some extent, but a revision of the burden carried by the United States vis-À-vis this order, how should we proceed? Japan should take initiative in thinking about this, we believe. Through such considerations, the international order, using The issues of the Trump administration as an opportunity, we can be enthusiastic about trying to create an even more resilient international order. Thank you.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you former Foreign Minister Gemba. We now turn to Shinjiro Koizumi, who is the Chief Secretary of the Headquarters For Achieving A New capitalism for the LDP, he’s Director of the Standing Committee on Economics, Trade and Industry. In the Diet, he is a six-term Diet member from Kanagawa and of course the Former Minister of the Environment. Koizumi.

Shinjiro Koizumi:

Thank you very much. First of all, I would like to thank you Dr. Weinstein for being a friend of Japan for so long and for providing us this opportunity today. I would also like to thank all of you who have joined us today amidst this conversation on tariffs where everyone is wondering what’s going to happen, I believe that that’s the context we find ourselves in. But as regards to the tariffs, of course I do think it represents a major challenge not only for Japan but for the world that America has provides such a challenge to us. But I think that it’s also an opportunity for us to emphasize the strength of the US-Japanese alliance.

I think it has served as a catalyst for the US to realize how important Japan is and how close our economic and security relationship is, it has served as a reminder for us. And so right now Japan is the country that invests in the US more than any other, and that has been the case over the past five years, so Japan has invested the most. Japan has also created 100 million jobs, half of which are in manufacturing, and I have been working with Mr. Onodera, who is on our policy research committee. And I have been a handling research into marine products, and there’s not a wide awareness of this, but whereas Trump is very interested in the trade deficit, as regards to agriculture and marine products, there’s actually a trade surplus that the US has with Japan.

And so when we think about this, it gives us the opportunity to revisit our views on the US-Japan relationship. And the day after tomorrow, Minister Akazawa will be coming to Washington for the second round of tariff negotiations, and President Trump and Secretary Bessent have continuously been sending out positive messages about Japan. And the relationship between President Japan and Prime Minister Ishiba, as regards to that topic, many people still remember the relationship President Trump had with Abe, so people were quite concerned, but there was a very good atmosphere at the first summit, and so I think that this is an opportunity to make the alliance even more solid and also to identify fields where we can step up our collaboration.

One is shipbuilding, I believe. I see that as a domain that President Trump is very interested in, and recently the Secretary of the Navy has also proposed creating dual-usage vessels with Japan, and both US navy vessels and dual-use vessels could be built in Japan or repaired in Japan, and also perhaps the Japanese could invest in American shipbuilding facilities, I see that as a possibility. Long story short, I believe that the tariffs are a major topic, but it is one that could highlight the roles that Japan could play in the world, and even if it involves some difficulties we still need to remember to be forward-looking in setting our agendas, because if the relationship between the US and Japan should become difficult or that between the US and Europe where to become a difficult, you have to think of who that will make copy, it’s a clear answer.

It will be certain countries and we must not be overly reliant on any specific countries, and so we need to be unwavering in the US and Japan, and have been about the issues that China represents. And President Trump talks about making America great again MAGA, but I would like to say that we should make the alliance great always, that’s what I’d like a MAGA to stand for, and so that’s a message that I would like to send out from Japan.

Ken Weinstein:

Oh, great. Thank you very much for that very clear message Mr. Koizumi. It’s now a pleasure to hear from a long-time friend a �����, an old friend of mine, two-time Former Defense Minister, Itsunori Onodera. He is chairperson of the Policy Research Council, incredibly important body in the LDP, he is also Chairman of the Committee on the Budget in the Diet, which is also an incredibly awe-inspiring set of responsibilities, and he’s an eight-term Diet member from Miyagi. Onodera Sensei, please.

Itsunori Onodera:

Nine times I’ve been elected. I met you first 15 years ago Mr, Weinstein with the Prime Minister Abe, I visited the ����� and had a talk with you, that was the first time I met you. At the time, the LDP was in the opposition, now we are now a minority party in power, and so even the passing of a budget requires a lot of work. In 150 years, it’s the first time that we were able to get a budget passed within the end of the year even though we had a minority government, thank you very much for that help Mr. Gemba. So on the Trump tariff question, it was a terrible shock at the beginning for us, especially for Japan vis-À-vis the US. We have invested heavily and have created a lot of jobs. We thought that this relationship was a real win-win, but with tariffs, Japan was treated the same. Different than some other countries, Japan has not taken countermeasures of retaliatory tariffs, we have said that we will negotiate to try to seek a win-win, this is the basic stance of the Ishiba government.

So we’ve come to Washington in order to try to have talks to find a win-win that will help both of us and we’d like to be able to go home with a sense of what is important, having heard various views. Further, about security, I have a concern. The US had been cooperating for the stability of East Asia in the security field with China in mind. In that context, the Trump tariffs affect both Japan and China, but there is a danger that high tariff rates could be applied to Asian countries. Up to now there are many countries in Asia that have taken a China policy similar to that of Japan and the US but their feelings are very unstable Now because of these tariffs, there’s a danger they might become more distant and become closer to China. This is not something that Japan wants either.

Japan would like to play a role in this tariff question to first find a solution via negotiation, and second with Asian countries, have solid negotiations with the US to make sure that we can all continue to enjoy good relations, I think Japan has a very big role to play here. Another point recently in the security discussion, there is an area where Japan changed its policy greatly allowing export of Japanese defense equipment to other countries and allowing joint development. Up to now defense equipment had to be used domestically, that was our basic stance. We now have a more open framework where it’s possible to collaborate. For example, the US and Japan could co-manufacture, co-develop defense items, and we can go about proactively deploying them in like-minded countries.

There will be a lot of discussion with President Trump and we have to be proactive in bringing up the fact that Japan is active on many fronts and contributing on many fronts. In the invasion of Ukraine, it’s important when it comes to defense equipment, particularly to have enough ammunition, it became very clear that otherwise you can’t continue a fight. Research organization in the Republic of Korea found that half of Russian ammunition used in the Ukraine war was supplied by North Korea, and that North Korea received quite a lot of payment from Russia for that. The balance in Asia is getting out of whack, North Korea is getting stronger, it may become an arms exporting country. Russia And North Korea have become closer. China further is already pressuring Taiwan heavily. In early April, China carried out large-scale military exercises, the security situation is very delicate. In that context, Japan is all the more eager to quickly resolve the tariff question in a win-win fashion in such a way that it contributes positively to security.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you very much, Minister Onodera. Our last speaker is new to �����, we’re delighted to have Kimi Onoda who is a Member of the House of Counselors from Okayama Prefecture. She’s Chair of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in the Upper House, she’s a former Parliamentary Vice Minister of defense, and is Vice Chair of the LDP Policy Research Council and we’re delighted to welcome you, look forward to hearing your insights.

Kimi Onoda:

This is my first time in my whole life to take part in this, but this is not the first question, we’re still having free discussion, right?

Shinjiro Koizumi:

Yes, you can say whatever’s on your mind.

Kimi Onoda:

Okay, Thank you for that. I am from the House of Counselors, my name is Kimi Onoda and everyone else on the stage has been a minister before so I’m wondering why someone like me is on the stage with them. But my father was American and I was born in Chicago, Illinois, and when I was 1-year-old I moved to Okayama Prefecture in Japan and then I grew up in Japan after that, so I never lived in the US even a year, but I was serving as the Vice Minister of Defense and I took part in the honor guard and gave a speech there, and that was something that made me feel a lot of things, this was in Iwo Jima, and so it made me feel like we really need to think about the nature of the alliance.

And everyone’s already talked on the tariff subject, but just as the other members have said, up until now as regards to trade as an example, China has always used trade, if there was something it didn’t like refusing to export rare metals or if Australia say anything about Taiwan, they said they wouldn’t import a beef or wine from them. So they have always used imports and exports, and we, partners, who share democratic values have tried to help each other and we have realized that relying on China represents China a risk, and so we’re trying to diversify our supply chains, and all these partners that share these values that have tried to work together.

So against that backdrop to have the risks now associated with the US as regards imports and exports is something that makes me a little bit sad actually. And up until now, the US has established the global rules and leadership on the world stage, which I think is very precious. And so I understand and think it’s great that Trump wants to revisit the current order, but you need the world to think that trading with America, being connected with America, or having security interest with America is not a risk but a benefit, and that is the correct path to pursue because if you can’t get the world to think that then it will be impossible to defend the international order. The democracies are those that are becoming the minority rather the majority in the world, and so we partners that share values need to connect with each other without a risk because that is going to be very important for the world and that’s what I hope to share with all of you today so that we can make a good choice going forward. Thank you.

Ken Weinstein:

Not bad for a debut. Thank you very much Onoda Sensei, thank you. Let me throw a few questions out for the Diet members and then I’ll open it up to the audience in a bit, and I just want to make sure that everybody who needs translation devices as them. Everybody’s good, okay, great. So first let me turn to you Former Foreign Minister Gemba, and let me get a sense from you, there used to be an expression in the United States that foreign policy stops at the national border, that we used to be unified and our vision of foreign policy, that’s no longer the case, and I was wondering in Japan if you see a cross-party consensus on Prime Minister Ishiba’s overall strategies, not everything that he does, but just broadly on the strategies that he’s undertaking on foreign policy, thank you?

Koichiro Gemba:

Looking at tariffs, I think Japan is becoming more consensual, more bipartisan. We have a minority government, even despite that we, were able to get a budget passed within the fiscal year, as my colleague representative Onodera has said. I think that the opposition party, they’re being held responsible. That was for the budget and I think that’s true also for foreign policy. So Ms. Former Prime Minister Onoda who heads the Constitutional party is saying that this is a national difficulty and so this position is not to criticize Prime Minister Ishiba but to hit him in the back end. Also, about overall strategies, for security and building up defenses. The Constitutional Democratic Party is more on the side of defense buildups, especially increasing the defense budget. Negative. That’s the impression, you have the impression that Constitutional Democrats are against that, I believe, however, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, were they actually against that? No, we have a consensus in favor of increasing the defense budget. Also for the Counter-Strike capability within our party, it was a very tough argument at the time I was the Research Committee Chairman, but there were some conditions such as purely defensive use. If those conditions were met, our party came out in favor of Counter-Strike capabilities and holding long-range missiles. So when it comes to diplomacy and security, I think that multi-party consensus is almost without a doubt easier to achieve now than it was in the past.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you. Let me now turn to Former Minister Onodera and ask what do you think the top priorities should be for the Japanese government in relation to Trump 2.0? You obviously you talked about tariffs, but what other priorities would you have, thank you?

Itsunori Onodera:

I think really the US-Japan cooperation in security and our roles for stability in East Asia are where it’s at. The US is the most important presence for us, and within the Trump tariff process, I’m concerned that US international engagement may suffer from a poor position when you consider that USAID, that its aid has been halted. Vaccine provision, food provision by this being cut off, developing countries could see damage to the health and the food supply for their children. I hope that quickly the US will change position on areas other than tariffs. If it takes a lot of time, then perhaps Japan should be proactive in providing assistance, this might be something that should be Japan’s role. Within the international community, I think that the position of the US is strongest when it engages with the rest of the world and we will send that message through diplomatic channels.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you. Let me now turn to former Environment Minister Koizumi. Given what President Trump is arguing with the America-first policies, and this sort of feeds onto what Minister Onodera just said, how does this feed onto the roles that Japan can and should play in the international arena, do you think Japan’s role is changing as a result?

Shinjiro Koizumi:

Firstly, President Trump and his America-first policy is something that I think as an independent country is a given, you should be pursuing something like that. Japan should also be Japan-first and pursue its interest, and I think that applies for every country and President Trump has been hoping to help people who have been left behind, and I think that that is also correct. And right now in Japan as well, there are people that we did not place enough spotlight on or domains that we did not place enough spotlight on, and so the people are hoping that we step up our policies in that sense. And so this is not a phenomenon confined to the US, I think that globally, the democracies are struggling with this and Onoda-san mentioned a moment ago that if you look out globally that democracies are fewer in number and that there are more countries that are undemocratic, that is correct, and President Trump is trying to definitely achieve a new international order, but at the same time you have countries like China that are not too democratic and that group is also hoping to get rid of the world where the US, Japan, and the G7 made the rules and created their own rules. And so against that backdrop, what is it that Japan should do?

I think that that is what we have to understand, and in that context, I believe that we should be working with President Trump to see what Japan can do to establish these new rules. And one avenue of that would be the UN. I don’t think that President Trump likes the UN, but Japan also doesn’t think that the UN is fine as it is, especially as regards to security council, there needs to be reform. If you look at the US-Russia war, you can realize that the permanent members of the security council have a veto, and now we know what impact that has, and if there were a Taiwan contingency, it could turn out that we witnessed the same sort of thing happening. And so we need to work together to reform the UN. Up until now, the US presidents would probably have preferred to keep the UN as it was, but I think that President Trump would probably say, okay, "Let’s work on it together." There is that possibility. And then also the WTO and other aspects of international trade need to be rebuilt, and I think that the WTO really needs to be reformed. At any rate, I think that the US and Japan could work together to make better, and more fair, and stable, and sustainable rules for the world, we could make proposals, and I think that Japan should make more proposals to the US.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you very much. Let me now turn to Upper House Member Onoda and ask her what she thinks should be Japan’s steps to focus more on maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. What concrete steps should Japan take do you think?

Kimi Onoda:

Well, for example, with regards to islands, I think that we’ve established a relationship with Australia and so we should address the issue of the southern islands, but also ASEAN is very important. And it’s very difficult in terms of how to engage with ASEAN, I was previously the Parliamentary Vice Minister of Defense and I made a speech at a conference on behalf of the minister, and Russia was also there, and I was the only person on the west side that talked about what Russia was doing to Ukraine. And China has also done so much to change the status quo, but I, from Japan, was also the only one to complain about China. And so we need to establish what it is worth being alert about or having a sense of crisis about because even if we know that, sometimes we think about our trade partners and other connections that we have with them. In the case of Ukraine, the energy supply has kept Europe from taking more actions, so we can’t decide what to do on the security front because of these other interests, and I think that ASEAN has been struggling with this, but working hard on this as well.

And I apologize for putting it this way, but I think that the Western countries have talked about the rule of law, and the equality, and things like that, the shared values, and I understand that well but they’ve been very pushy about it. And the democracies are no longer the majority, and so some countries might not like to hear that they want to work with you, but if they’re going to have those values pushed on you, then they can’t join hands with you in some cases. And Japan is probably more acknowledging of the variety of values out there than most countries, so we can help a lot of countries, even with ODA, we can’t say, "We’re going to give this to you." And just push it on them, we go there and find out what it is that they really want and help them so that they can help themselves, that’s how Japanese ODA works.

And Japan has OSA, which is Official Security, OSA, I don’t know what the English word was. Assistance, thank you for that. And that is providing a defense equipment to other countries. For example, we’ve provided radar sites for the Philippines and we’ve transferred this equipment to them, but the people who are going to be working there have come to Japan so that the self-defense forces could train them as well, and then we deliver the equipment to them. And so people don’t want to have something shoved on them, they want to realize that you really care about what it is that they want and that they understand and are trying to work with you on that, and so that is something that Japan is capable of. And so if it’s difficult to share a philosophy within a group, then you need to have something a looser, a looser circle where you’re working together, And then whether it be in terms of trade or the economy or what have you, not to be reliant on China and establish more of a relationship with one another, I think that that’s a type of assistance that Japan and maybe only Japan could supply.

Ken Weinstein:

Very good, thank you very much. I’ve got four more questions before we open it up for the panel. Let me throw one out to each of the panelists. First, let me begin with Former Minister Foreign Affairs Gemba. A key aspect of the US-Japan bilateral trade imbalance arguably comes from Japan’s low level of consumption compared to the United States. Do you see this as a place where the United States and Japan differ about how Japan should grow its economy? Are there areas in Japan as you think about economic growth in Japan that should be prioritized, whether it be the development sector, the startup sector, overseas investments, or cutting edge technologies? How do you see it from your perspective, thank you?

Koichiro Gemba:

I think this topic, the US-Japan trade account, Japan has a surplus, the US has a deficit, and that’s because of low demand domestically in Japan, I think that was the suggestion. I don’t think that’s the only factor, but it may be one. So Japan’s domestic demand, up to now its productivity has been actually was steadily rising. Unfortunately, wages and investment did not result from that. Wages stagnated, real wages were stagnating for a long time. Corporate savings, financial assets per capita of households are the best they’ve ever been, they’re at record levels. So what’s the biggest issue at hand? I think this is also bipartisan. We should raise wages. If that succeeds, Japan’s domestic demand should improve. That alone is the only reason behind the trade surplus we have with the US.

Ken Weinstein:

Okay, thank you. Let me turn to Former Minister Onodera and ask you, you were one of the Diet members really who led the charge on the three strategic documents that were released in December of 2022 that led to the doubling of defense spending by 2027, now the creation I guess, of an offensive cyber capability, increased cyber security, increased information security, and the like. Wanted to get your sense of how you see the progress so far and the progress moving forward in that area, thank you?

Itsunori Onodera:

The national security strategy was newly drafted. Our defense strategy was drafted and a specific defense buildup plan was created. We succeeded in doing this and Japan’s Counter-Strike capability was therefore approved by the government of Japan and it’s become quite possible for us to export defense items. Cyber security new legislation is expected soon, monitoring and active cyber defense in the cyberspace. Things such as these were not possible up to now, but they will become possible. I think that our capability is quite a bit being improved. In Trump 1.0, I was a defense minister, we promised to increase our defense budget, and we have done some continuously, but one has to consider the Ukraine, and Gaza in the Mideast, Israel, if you look at the war situations there, defense capability buildup that was decided just a few years ago, is it going to be okay as it is or should it be sped up, or should new fields be prioritized such as drones, cognitive domain? The battle space is getting larger and especially the cognitive domain is important.

We are being attacked by China in Japan now in Okinawa vis-a-vis several media outlets. Several papers, articles have been sent to Okinawa saying that the Ryukyus were never part of Japan, they used to be a part of China, that they used to be strongly under the control of China. A lot of new papers are being published in this area on this topic in China and being sent around the world. And experimentally the Senkaku Islands, a friend of mine asked DeepSeek, which is Chinese, and DeepSeek said it is inherent Chinese territory. A Japanese citizen or an American citizen well versed in Japanese affairs would know this is a lie, but if this kind of AI becomes internationally used, many people may not know, they might actually be believe that it was originally Chinese and that Japan is trying to occupy it, false messages could spread. A request we have for our ally, the US, is that China is engaging in cognitive warfare in various areas vis-a Africa. They’re saying, for example, the Chinese were the first to discover America. It would be very dangerous for us if we don’t pay attention to this field and we should think of it as a battle domain.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you. Thank you Minister Onodera. Let me ask Former Minister Koizumi, your father when he was Prime minister had a very close relationship with George W. Bush, of course Prime Minister Abe had an incredibly close relationship with President Trump. As you look at the way that these personal relationships affect policy, how would you think a future Prime Minister should think about these kinds of personal relationships with the US president?

Shinjiro Koizumi:

Well, president Trump makes this point particularly important, that’s for sure, and since I’ve been in the US this time, people have been asking me how the chemistry was between Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump but I think that the relationship between Prime Minister Abe and President Trump and that between Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump is something that should not be compared directly, that’s not fair. The reason for that is that when Prime Minister Abe was in office, President Trump still had no political experience, and for that reason, he wanted to hear from Prime Minister Abe and learn from him, I think that it was a relationship of that nature. But now President Trump has four years under his belt as president and is more confident, and so against that backdrop, meanwhile he’s engaging with Prime Minister Ishiba who’s just become Prime Minister, so it’s not the same kind of relationship.

But when the interlocutors change, then so does the style of communication and also how you go about building the relationship also changes, and I think that it’s fine for each different set of people to have their own style. It’s not that everyone needs to play golf. Maybe it is better to play golf, it might be better for you, but there should be another approach available to you as well, and so I think that first of all, prime Minister Ishiba loves to work, he’s all about work. So first of all, he wants to tackle the negotiation right in front of Secretary Bessent, has been conveying a very positive messaging about three countries, Japan, South Korea and India, and those three countries in the negotiations are being treated with high priority. And so I think that by achieving good deals, that they will realize that he is someone who can do his work or we will both see each other as people who can get the job done, meaning that even if you don’t play golf, you can still have a good relationship built and that any way that you go about that is fine, I think that’s important to recognize.

But as you are well aware, Dr. Weinstein, President Trump and many people in his administration that are familiar with Japan, there are many people like that and it’s important to have good relationships with them, so it’s not all just about the heads of state. And I think that the history that we have up until now that we’ve established are the reason that we’ve been able to come here with this cross-party delegation this time as well, so that really highlights the importance of the person-to-person relationships. And I met Ambassador Glass last week, and he and his family have a long-held connection with Japan. And 17 members of the US Congress sent a letter to President Trump about how he should place priority on the North Korean abduction issue, and one of those Congress members was someone who had been in the JET program and come to Japan on that. And so that shows that no matter the conditions, the US and Japan need to continue to maintain these person-to-person relationships, and that’s something that doesn’t just apply to the heads of state.

Ken Weinstein:

Thank you very much. And let me throw the last question that I’m offering to Upper House Member Onoda. Well, obviously in Japan as here in the United States, we’re looking nervously at the South Korean elections and not knowing which direction it’s going to go. Obviously with President Yoon, we had a president who was favorable to the United States, who was favorable to Japan, who was willing to take huge political risks in order to improve the bilateral relationship with Japan and the trilateral relationship with the United States. How in Tokyo is there’s so much uncertainty about the Korean elections in terms of who the candidates will be, what are your concerns about the South Korean elections, thank you?

Kimi Onoda:

That’s the question you really shouldn’t have asked me, I don’t know what to say. South Korea’s a little bit odd because the politicians can’t get popularity unless they make anti-Japan comments, but frankly speaking, they’re aware of the importance of the US-Japan relationship, and that’s the reason that we were able to, even though we weren’t all right, we acted like we were all right with the radar issue with South Korea. But even if we make a really good relationship over four years with them, once the administration changes in South Korea, the next administration might say that they don’t know anything about what happened or transpired then, and so I don’t have any definite evidence that anything we built up or four years would last beyond that. So I would personally say that we need to get on by ourselves without relying on them. See, I told you you shouldn’t have asked me. Can someone follow up on that for me please? Someone else might say that I was wrong.

Ken Weinstein:

I apologize for asking you the questions. Well now I’ll turn it to the audience then for questions. Yeah, let me first turn it, I see there’s a reporter over there, Felicia Schwartz with Politico, if you can get a microphone to her, and then I’ve seen the other hands go up. That was the first hand I saw go up.

Felicia Schwartz:

Thanks Ken, and thank you for doing this. I think this is probably for Mr. Onodera and Mr. Koizumi. When you’re talking to the Trump team, do you feel that they are willing to negotiate about not just the 24% tariff but the 10% tariff, and tariffs on automobiles, and aluminum, and steel, and all of that, everything beyond that? And then I think just secondly, do you feel that you have a good grasp of what the US end game is?

Koichiro Gemba:

Good question. Great.

Itsunori Onodera:

The first tariffs on steel and aluminum, actually it’s tough to manufacture them domestically in the US, so the 25% tariff would just be a cost that the US consumer would have to bear, in the same way we have concerns about US prices rising. Listening to various people talk, the average US consumer when they go to the supermarket will find many items from China. Now in a few months, either the prices would go up or the products would disappear if high tariffs were implemented, a lot of people are telling us this. I am the head of the LDP’s office to try to take measures against this, and it impressed me what someone from the battery industry told me. 20% of what the export to the US is to Japanese companies in the US, the other 80% is the US automakers. If 25% tariffs come into effect on the third, this will make manufacturing very costly for Detroit manufacturers. So the effects of the tariffs are very tough, not just for Japan, but various effects could arise within the US as well so that’s why we want to make effort quickly such that we can fix this and avoid the tariffs, we think it’s very important to make efforts to that end. It’s tough for the Japanese public to have the tariffs, but in the long run this will result in higher prices for the American consumers and something we have to understand.

Ken Weinstein:

Want to add to this?

Shinjiro Koizumi:

The same.

Ken Weinstein:

Over here.

Speaker 7:

I thank you so much Ken again and thank you all to the speakers, it’s great and very reassuring to hear that there’s a bipartisan consensus that the importance of US-Japan Security Alliance is still at the cornerstone of our alliance. And with that being said, my question is in terms of the Minister Akazawa’s negotiation coming up in two days, can we expect that the negotiation will also include the US-Japan Security Alliance in some form or some way to better leverage and come out to a great deal, or is it that we wish or we hope that Trump will not mention about the Security alliance and hope that that won’t be brought to the table? Just want to get the sense of what you all think the outcome of the US-Japan Security Alliance will be in terms of this negotiation, thank you.

Itsunori Onodera:

Minister Akazawa representing the Japanese government will soon arrive in Washington. Negotiations are carried out by the government, so we and the Diet do not comment. What we hope though is that on this tariff question, the negotiations will conclude in such a fashion that will be a win-win for the US and for Japan for security as well.

Ken Weinstein:

I think there’s a question over here.

Speaker 8:

Thank you so much, here working at the Asia Group. My quick question is to Gemba-sensei about there are rumors going that CDP is trying to raise a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ishiba. So taking into account how volatile the situation is, do you think those rumors are true? How far is this going to happen and are you thinking of it before the upper house election?

Koichiro Gemba:

Nobody knows. Well, I am Vice-Speaker, the Vice-Speaker and the Speakers are so to speak and are not allowed to comment on this kind of question. On the others, former Prime Minister Noda? I would guess I don’t think he has decided as to whether a motion of no-confidence should be brought up.

Ken Weinstein:

Over here, next to her.

Speaker 9:

Sorry, I’m asking question in Japanese if you don’t mind. My name is Yokoyama from Bloomberg and I have a come from Tokyo to cover Minister Akazawa’s visit. And I’d like to ask Mr. Onodera, you mentioned there was some question about whether security would be brought up during Minister Akazawa’s visits, but do you think that the Diet should consider increasing the defense budget or covering the cost of the US forces in Japan? If you were asked that, what do you think that you would answer? If you’re going to establish a win-win relationship., There’s the topic of the joint development of defense equipment that you mentioned earlier, but if there’s some other way to establish a win-win relationship, what do you think it would be?

Itsunori Onodera:

So on your first question, I don’t think I can answer with a hypothetical. On your second question, the security situation is so tough now, on top of that we have tariffs. The US and Japan and all the countries in the west I think even are a bit wavering. In order to not send a wrong message, I think US-Japan are okay, should conduct visible joint trilateral defense training.

Ken Weinstein:

Great, thank you.

Speaker 10:

I just remembered that your father, Mr. Koizumi gave a speech at the UN and after that I had the chance to help him, and he had a press conference after that, and there were only Japanese press members there. And listening to what was just said, I think that maybe the issue lies somewhere else. It’s similar here today, almost all the media here is Japanese and almost all the attendees are Japanese. So the issue is not things as concrete as the tariffs, but it wasn’t until the pandemic that I left Japan for the first time, it was for a year, and I realized that you don’t see news about Japan or Japan talked about at all, and I think that one issue is the language barrier. So I don’t think the issues are so granular, I think that Japan and its message doesn’t get to conveyed and that this is something that we don’t realize, but I think that if we were to focus on this more, it would resolve the more granular problems for us. And it’s difficult to say this, but both in the morning and afternoon sessions, most of the attendees and media have been a Japanese, and Prime Minister Ishiba’s grandfather was famous, and he was a famous pastor, and he was friends with a Billy Graham, and I think that if that had been brought up with a Trump, that would’ve made a major difference.

So I think that the Japanese language acts as a handicap for us and so we need to put more efforts into our communication, I believe. If that’s something that we worked on harder then I think that we would be able to get to beyond the language barrier and convey what’s good about Japan, what do you think about that?

Shinjiro Koizumi:

Thank you, thank you for that. Communication is always important and Dr. Weinstein also mentioned this, that we always need to be thinking about how Japan can best to convey the message that it has, that’s something we should always be working to improve. And also it’s not just about the English language, there are other important factors. We are speaking in a Japanese right now, but as a Japanese people, we should be able to use our language, and our culture, and our traditions and be proud of those. And so each of us is responsible for our own country and should have patriotism in our hearts as we engage with other countries so that even if we have differences of opinions of them, they will also respect us, that’s very important for diplomacy.

And you mentioned my father, but my father and President Bush at the were not always speaking to each other in English, and also Prime Minister Abe and President Trump always had interpreters with them so that they did not misunderstand each other, and in that context, they were able to develop a very special relationship with one another. So I think that language is important as you say, but communication takes place through a diversity of forums, and so that’s something that we also need to understand and try to get as many people as possible to understand the value of Japan and get the US to understand that we are a win-win partner. Thank you for that.

Ken Weinstein:

I will note by the way, the majority of people asking questions, they’re not Japanese, and the audience, aside from the delegation traveling with Koichiro, it’s not all Japanese as you indicated.

Speaker 11:

Yes, hello, I’m going to speak in English. Sorry about that. So I’m curious to ask you, what role can Japan play in terms of J-alert system? So as you know, there’s a lot of calamities that happen in Japan, and Japan has a very good system on how to deal with it, especially the rubber mats used and the ground-level structural work is just brilliant. So what can Japan do to help Florida or Alaska where a lot of calamities happen given how good your system is, even though you’re under three tectonic plate borders, but still, I’m amazed, I have to clap on it. So what can Japan do on that level for the US?

Shinjiro Koizumi:

I think that’s a very good point, I would like to ask Ms. Onoda to speak to this as well, but for example, we have cell phones and in Japan, if there is an earthquake then we get an urgent alert on our cell phones. And of course sometimes they’re not right, they’re not right sometimes, but being told that you’re about to experience an earthquake through this really loud sound is something that really helps us, and I think that Japan is one only country in the world that has that. And so we should think about how we could collaborate with other countries, and in terms of architecture as well, we do have a seismic technology, and so how we could share that with other countries is something that we could collaborate on with the US in the future. We’re talking here about disaster readiness and the 2011 earthquakes was something that serves the catalyst for the Tomodachi Operation, but we could also have private sector collaboration and develop this there, so I agree with you on that.

Ken Weinstein:

And then yeah, go there and there, we have time for two more questions.

Speaker 12:

I’ll be asking a question in Japanese. I am studying international relations in the Master’s course at George Washington and I am also student, so I don’t know a lot, but please bear with me. I think that Trump and Xi will probably be negotiating with each other, but if you look at what Trump did in the first administration, it’s kind of unpredictable. I think that probably that there is things that can be done in terms of security, but do you think that some compromise might be reached without Japan’s involvement? And also how do you think Japan should go about maintaining its resilience, could you tell me what you’re thinking right now?

Itsunori Onodera:

That’s a really delicate question, but the diplomacy, economic sanctions we have in place, we want to make sure that there will be no quick changes, abrupt changes, and be prepared. Economic security is becoming more and more important, not for a particular country, but so that our supply chains will be prepared for any eventuality. And also information security is also something that we have to be attentive to.

Ken Weinstein:

Last question,

Speaker 13:

I’m a senior fellow from Johns Hopkins and a moment ago, Mr. Onodera mentioned the dismantling of USAID and the fact that it was closed. And in Asia and Africa, there’s now a vacuum created by the absence of the US, and who is going to enter into that space is a big issue. And Japan thinks of human security as a pillar of its security policy, so as an ally of the US, in order to strengthen the international order, what kind of contribution could Japan make?

Itsunori Onodera:

Are you from SAIS?

Speaker 13:

I used to be at SAIS a long time ago.

Itsunori Onodera:

Japan has been providing funds for human security and we should continue to do so. USAID is pressing issue. We have to seek for a US-Japan win-win in this area as well. I think Japan should pay attention to this area of international aid as well.

Koichiro Gemba:

Earlier, Mr. Onoda was also saying this, but Japan provides aid, but a characteristic of Japan’s aid is that we take into consideration the other country’s stance. USAID had a huge amount of aid, Japan’s finances, frankly I think would not permit us to fill that gap. So we shouldn’t try to overextend ourselves, but we can do what we do best. Sadako Ogawa, whom I respect has said, and this is also bipartisan, taking good care of the dignity of human beings to continue to provide aid to something that she’s spoken up for and we certainly support that.

Itsunori Onodera:

Any other comments now? Any other comments?

Kimi Onoda:

Since the mess I made of it earlier, I thought I’d better shut up. But I’ll just say one thing, this wasn’t something we discussed today, but in terms of security, I think that the labor supply is going to be very important. We talked about earthquakes just now, and also you were talking about rubber mats, I think you’re talking about anti-seismic rubber mats, but Japan is lacking in people, especially engineers. And so whether you’re building defense equipment or seismic equipment, we really need to give better compensation to specialists in those field. And so I think people really don’t talk about security from the perspective of labor supply, but I think that that’s part of economic security. And when we had the earthquake in 2011, lots of foreigners living in Japan left Japan. So when there’s some contingency, we need people to stay in Japan, and so we need to train people. And I’ve spoken with the people in Europe about this as well, but they were saying that they don’t have enough engineers for their manufacturing sector as well so we need to start thinking about labor supply as part of security. So those of us who share the common values need to work on this together or else we could see our labor supplies taken away from us as well, so that’s something else that we need to work on, that’s just my view.

Ken Weinstein:

That is also a problem we face here in the United States. Look, I want to offer heartfelt thanks to our extraordinary group of panelists, Diet members Gemba, Onodera, Koizumi, Onoda. I very much hope that we will be able to welcome all of you back, especially Onoda-san.

Kimi Onoda:

Sorry, so sorry.

Ken Weinstein:

I want to thank our friends at the Mount Fuji Dialogue for making this possible, I want to thank my Japan Chair colleagues, Deputy Director Will Chou in particular, and also research associate Ikutsuji Hiro on this, our translator, and especially the ����� communications team that worked so hard to pull this event together. Thank you so much and have a wonderful rest of your trip here.