President Trump will roll back major components of the Obama administration鈥檚 opening to Cuba with a new slate of travel and business restrictions, Reuters:
Taking a tougher approach against Cuba after promising to do so during the presidential campaign, Trump will make clear that a ban on U.S. tourism to Cuba remains in effect and his administration will beef up enforcement of travel rules under authorized categories, the officials said.
The new limits on U.S. business deals will target the Armed Forces Business Enterprises Group (GAESA), a conglomerate involved in all sectors of the economy, including hotels, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity. [鈥�.]
Trump will justify his partial reversal of Obama鈥檚 measures to a large extent on human rights grounds. His aides contend that Obama鈥檚 easing of U.S. restrictions has done nothing to advance political freedoms in Cuba, while benefiting the Cuban government financially.
Trump鈥檚 move comes at a moment of , when an eroding Venezuela is losing its ability to prop up Cuba鈥檚 failed economy. Estimates that Cuba consumes 130,000 barrels of oil per day, but only produces 50,000 on its own. With the flow of crude from Venezuela now plummeting, Cuba is struggling to fill the gap鈥攁nd has been desperately looking for foreign lifelines and investment. Trump鈥檚 renewed restrictions on tourism and business could make Cuba feel the economic pinch even more acutely.
Still, it is not clear what is the legal basis of preventing U.S. citizens from traveling to Cuba absent a Cold War-level security threat. American citizens should have the right to go where they want, and it is a serious American civil liberties issue to start telling us where we can and can鈥檛 go. Of course, the State Department is wise not to recommend that Americans schedule tourism to North Korea at the moment, and there is a legitimate national security reason to watch who goes to eastern Syria, for example. But today鈥檚 Cuba doesn鈥檛 meet that test.
Nor is it in the U.S. national interest to push the Cuban economy over the cliff. We shouldn鈥檛 be rescuing the Castro regime, but from the standpoint of American foreign policy, our lives would not be better if we added a Cuban succession crisis to the one shaping up in Caracas. Given the in Venezuela, we want to have some cards in our hands to affect Cuban behavior there. It is NOT in our interest for the Cuban government to help prop up the Maduro disaster, and increased Cuban economic dependence on flows of tourism would give us more ability to affect their behavior going down the road.
The smartest play for President Trump right now would be to let the Cubans know that he has zero emotional investment in Obama鈥檚 opening, stands ready to reverse it and even tighten things farther under certain circumstances, is deeply opposed to Cuban interference in Venezuela鈥攁nd meanwhile leave the sword of Damocles hanging over Cuba鈥檚 head.
But it is Venezuela, not the ghost of the Bay of Pigs, that should be driving our Cuba policy these days.