The sound you鈥檇 be hearing this morning if you live in the devastated city of Homs in Syria, would be Russian jets doing bombing runs against your neighbors rebelling against dictator Bashar al-Assad.
And not just in Homs. The roar of those Russian jets is being heard around the world; it鈥檚 the sound of Vladimir Putin becoming the new alpha male and power broker of the Middle East.
What I dubbed in a recent the Pax Putinica is rapidly taking shape. Just as the earlier Pax Americana was aimed at containing the Soviet Union, so Putin鈥檚 new world order is aimed at smashing the U.S.鈥檚 influence as a superpower, first in Europe and now in the eastern Mediterranean.
Our president, meanwhile, is letting it all happen. If Vladimir Putin is the dominant alpha male in the new international pecking order, Barack Obama has emerged as his highly submissive partner.
There are various reasons why we are being subjected to the humiliating spectacle of an American president, so-called leader of the free world, rolling over on the mat at Putin鈥檚 feet.
Of course, there have been signs for years that Obama is prone to submitting to males who act dominantly in his presence. Who can forget his frozen performance with Mitt Romney in the first presidential debate in 2012, where Romney ruled the stage while Obama seemed to shrink away (Romney then threw away his alpha-male advantage in the next debate). We鈥檝e seen it in his interactions with China鈥檚 president Xi Jinping; his strange bowing and scraping with the Saudi king; and his various meetings with Putin, including the last at the United Nations on Monday where a tight-lipped Obama could barely bring himself to look at the Russian president while Putin looked cool and confident鈥攁s well as he should.
For every aggressive move Putin has made on the international stage, first in Crimea and Ukraine in Europe, and now in Syria, our president鈥檚 response has been largely verbal protestations followed by resolute inaction. Why should Putin not assume that when he orders the U.S. to stop its own air strikes against ISIS in Syria, and to leave the skies to the Russians, he won鈥檛 be obeyed?
But there鈥檚 more to Obama鈥檚 passivity than just pack behavior, and the real explanation is Iran.
Since gaining the presidency, Obama鈥檚 entire policy of constructive engagement with Iran, including the current nuclear deal, has been built on the premise that Russia will help, both with shutting down Iran鈥檚 nuclear program when a deal is finally struck, and re-imposing sanctions if Iran doesn鈥檛.
That鈥檚 why he was so eager to accept Putin鈥檚 offer to get Assad to give over his chemical weapons in 2013 鈥� as a test run for cooperation in stopping Iran鈥檚 nuclear program 鈥� and why he鈥檚 been so hesitant about supporting the anti-Assad rebels, even after publicly calling for the dictator鈥檚 removal for more than four years 鈥� not to mention so weak in confronting Russian aggression in Ukraine.
It even explains why he鈥檚 been slow to respond to ISIS鈥檚 seizing of territory in both Syria and Iraq, out of fear that aggressive American military action might offend Tehran, and with it Iran鈥檚 chief patron, Vladimir Putin.
Of course this is all an Obama fantasy, reinforced by Obama鈥檚 deep disdain for our allies in the region, Israel and the Saudis, who are also the ones most worried by Russia鈥檚 escalating influence. They know Putin鈥檚 ambitions run counter to real peace and stability in the Middle East; that he has no intention of defeating ISIS if it helps keep the region in turmoil and no reason to rein in Iran鈥檚 nuclear program as long as fear or Iran serves Russian interests. They also understand that Putin will be able to play the Shia Iranians against the Sunni Arabs in order to increase his own status as power broker, as well as his status as gatekeeper for other powers who will want a bigger piece of the action in the Pax Putinica Middle East, including China.
In the meantime, Obama鈥檚 fantasy has turned U.S. policy in the region inside out 鈥� and propelled Russia back into the ranks of the world鈥檚 superpowers. The next president will have to deal with the consequences of that passivity. For now, the rest of us will be listening for the roar of Russian jets 鈥� and hoping they stay in the Middle East.