SVG
Commentary
Foreign Policy

India Is Getting Cold Feet About Trump鈥檚 America

Harsh rhetoric and trade wars have tarnished a once-promising relationship

aparna_pande
aparna_pande
Research Fellow, India and South Asia
Consultant, Hills & Company
President Trump and Prime Minister Modi at the ASEAN Summit in Manila, November 13, 2017 (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Caption
President Trump and Prime Minister Modi at the ASEAN Summit in Manila, November 13, 2017 (JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)

p(firstLetter). On the 2016 campaign trail, now-U.S. President Donald Trump  an Indian-American audience: 鈥淭here won鈥檛 be any relationship more important to us.鈥� Secretary of State Mike Pompeo periodically  everyone of India鈥檚 centrality to U.S. Asia policy.

Growing warmth toward India is one of the few policies to have survived the change in administrations intact. With India now the world鈥檚 sixth-largest economy, and growing fears in Washington about a rising China, New Delhi is looking like an increasingly attractive partner鈥攅specially as the two nations, at least theoretically, share similar values: democracy, rule of law, and entrepreneurship. But just as the United States is warming up to India, India is starting to get cold feet about the whole idea.

Bilateral relations in recent years have begun to reflect America鈥檚 eagerness to get close to India. High-level security conversations have sprung up, like the so-called 鈥攁 first鈥攂etween Pompeo, Defense Secretary James Mattis, and their Indian counterparts scheduled for Sept. 6.

In India鈥檚 honor, Asia strategy is increasingly being framed as 鈥淚ndo-Pacific.鈥� The Pentagon  its regional combatant command in the same fashion. Defense trade appears poised to skyrocket as both sides  on agreements facilitating military communications, interoperability, and geospatial situational awareness, and India takes advantage of  to U.S. defense technology. Potential U.S. secondary sanctions over  and continue to bedevil the relationship.  But these irritants can be managed with a heightened appreciation of each other鈥檚 interests and a touch of creativity.

Despite efforts by Mattis and others to impose a strategic direction and invest in strengthening ties, there are plenty of fresh doubts in New Delhi. In the short term, that unease has been stirred by Trump鈥檚 economic nationalism and the White House鈥檚 unreliability. But something more significant鈥攖he longer-term direction of U.S. foreign policy鈥攎ay be making India cautious.

Since the 1990s, the U.S.-India relationship has grown steadily, with every president from Bill Clinton and every prime minister from Atal Bihari Vajpayee viewing each other as  and partners. India鈥檚 strategic community and permanent bureaucracy have taken longer to adjust. Some still harbor suspicions about closer ties and  Washington as unreliable. The Trump administration鈥檚 erratic behavior may be inducing latent tendencies to resurface.

Trump鈥檚 trade rhetoric, tightened H-1B visa rules for high-skilled workers, metals tariffs (imposed on spurious national security grounds), and the threatened removal of developing-country trade benefits portend a rough patch, whether or not ongoing negotiations produce a cease-fire.

In Asia, the White House leadership has shown an interest in trade and North Korea鈥攁nd that鈥檚 about it. (Despite a lot of tough talk on China, there has been a lack of investment or strategic planning outside of a misguided trade war.) The region has already witnessed whiplash-inducing U.S. policy changes on Taiwan and North Korea.

That has quietly raised plenty of fears in New Delhi beyond just trade. To their west, Indian diplomats struggle to rule out a self-confident president who is overlooking Pakistan鈥檚 military-intelligence complex and relying instead on the earnestly spoken words of a new civilian leadership. Some worry that Trump鈥檚 desire for a quick, domestically saleable exit from Afghanistan, based on negotiations with the Taliban, could result in Delhi being asked to reduce ties with Kabul.

To its east, India must adjust to the White House鈥檚 ever-changing China policy. Today, the president is lobbing verbal grenades at China. Tomorrow, some Indian analysts fear, he could be working for a far different endgame: a 鈥淕-2鈥� alliance to carve up the region with Asia鈥檚 ultimate deal-maker, Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Not surprisingly, India is starting to respond to all the uncertainty by rebalancing its strategic portfolio, showing the early signs of someone living in a tough neighborhood who鈥檚 not sure who has their back. As a post-colonial, developing nation, India has always been most comfortable in a multipolar world, where it isn鈥檛 forced to choose between great powers. Trump has made it easy for India to slip back into the habit, learned in the Cold War days, of pandering to as many sides as possible.

It鈥檚 possible these moves just reflect the typical ebb and flow of diplomacy or possibly the government鈥檚 desire for tranquility outside its borders with next spring鈥檚 approaching national elections. But that assumes Delhi interprets what is happening in Washington鈥攖he flip-flopping, blustering, and realpolitik in its rawest form鈥攁s a passing flight of fancy.

Seasoned diplomats and America watchers in India don鈥檛 seem so sure. Sifting through the detritus of the president鈥檚 recent European trip, columnist C. Raja Mohan : 鈥淭rump is widely seen as an aberration in US politics. There is much hope that things will return to normal after he departs the scene. May be or may be not.鈥�

That undercurrent of skepticism reflects certain continuities in U.S. foreign policy across both major parties. Former President Barack Obama and Trump have very different world views, but  from multiplying overseas commitments. Leading political figures on the left and right question globalization, open markets, and military force overseas.

Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the left, as well as Trump, all came out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement during the 2016 campaign. In military affairs, two incredibly different administrations have shown great antipathy toward U.S. interventions from Afghanistan to Syria, favoring antiseptic drones, bombs, and special forces, as well as 鈥渙ffshore balancing鈥� (think allies and partners picking up the slack). Sen. John McCain鈥檚 death last week serves as a stark reminder that the ranks of  in national politics are thinning, at least for now, as he and statesmen such as former Sens. John Kerry, Richard Lugar, Joe Biden, and Chuck Hagel leave public life. (McCain, not coincidentally, was generally seen by India as .)

Worries of a lack of U.S. commitment are pushing India back toward the strategies of nonalignment. At an April summit in Wuhan, China Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi  with Xi. A  was arguably overdue after a brutal period in India-China relations highlighted by a tense, 73-day border standoff in the Himalayas. But India appears to be modulating its diplomacy with China precisely as attitudes in the U.S. establishment are  over Beijing鈥檚 expansionism.

At Asia鈥檚  this June, Modi delivered a carefully measured speech that took pains not to cross Asia鈥檚 other giant and featured the milquetoast lexicon of nonalignment alongside more forward-leaning messages. In recent months, India has also sought to reassure an old ally and longtime defense supplier, Russia, that closer U.S. ties don鈥檛 signal abandonment of Moscow.

Delhi  the big idea to come out of one of the most unequivocally pro-India speeches delivered by a senior U.S. official. In describing the country as a linchpin of the Trump administration鈥檚 Indo-Pacific vision last fall, then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson  the idea of a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, composed of four of the Pacific鈥檚 large democracies: Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. China likes the Quad 2.0 as much as the prototype鈥攏ot very much. So, when India declined Australian participation in high-profile military exercises with the rest of the Quad this summer, the decision raised a few eyebrows.

Delhi has also appeared  to stoke perceptions of a formal military alliance鈥攅specially when everyone鈥檚 full commitment is in question. This preference for strategic autonomy continued this month with India reportedly  of a joint project launched by other Quad partners to present high-quality infrastructure alternatives to China鈥檚 Belt and Road Initiative.

Add in new concerted Indian efforts to expand diplomacy with European powers such as  and underscore Southeast Asia鈥檚 importance to the region, and it all begins to form the outlines of a classic hedging strategy, reflecting the pursuit of maximum options with minimum restrictions.

If some measure of continuing U.S. retrenchment鈥攚ell short of Trump鈥檚 鈥溾� and closer to Obama鈥檚 circumspection鈥攊s in the cards, India will need to build closer ties with natural friends and hasten its transition to a . In the meantime, Delhi may feel a compulsion to tread carefully with a stronger China.

But this isn鈥檛 all bad news for the United States and its allies. Washington and most Asian capitals want to see an Indian foreign policy with more teeth. Any successful hedging strategy would require building closer ties with fellow democracies鈥攁ll U.S. allies鈥攊n Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and recognizing the centrality of the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members to the region鈥檚 balance (also consistent with U.S. policy).

India is fundamentally different from traditional allies for whom the United States was and is the key security provider. India doesn鈥檛 want to depend on security guarantees, but a more confident and independent India that enjoys strong relationships with leading countries helps U.S. interests in preserving Asia鈥檚 balance and freedom, even if the United States takes a step back from the region over the long term.

Finally, just as India鈥檚 edging away from America doesn鈥檛 mean Delhi is turning against it, a recalibrated Indian approach to China is similarly unlikely to change their fundamentally competitive dynamic. In fact, the countries鈥� growing capabilities and ambitions鈥攁nd the current asymmetry in both in China鈥檚 favor鈥攎ay produce imbalances that create frictions in India鈥檚 neighborhood. Beijing鈥檚 recent expansionist activities in and around the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean鈥攁nd India鈥檚 often annoyed reactions鈥攔eflect the early stages of this dynamic.

U.S.-India ties are likely to grow more complicated, but any realignment in Delhi may yet offer a satisfactory鈥攊f not thrilling鈥攐utcome, buying time until the United States gets its house in order.