On Tuesday two Turkish shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter bomber over Turkish territory.
Given the crowded skies over Syria these days, with American, French, British, Turkish, and now Russian planes all taking part in strikes against ISIS and rebel forces, an accident was bound to happen鈥攅xcept that this was no accident. This was a deliberate shoot-down, as a warning to President Putin not to let his warplanes violate Turkish air space, which they鈥檝e done repeatedly in the last month, and to stop bombing villages belonging to ethnic Turks in Syria.
The real question is what happens next. In a different context, a member of NATO deliberately shooting down a Russian plane could have triggered World War III. Putin鈥檚 verbal reaction was swift, condemning the incident as a 鈥渟tab in the back.鈥� But beyond sending more planes and ground troops into Syria, it鈥檚 not clear what his next move will be.
Turkey isn鈥檛 Ukraine. There isn鈥檛 a large ethnic Russian minority to stir up, one into which Putin can filter his 鈥渓ittle green men鈥� to create havoc and civil war. He could punish the Erdogan government with a massive cyberattack by his secret police hackers and the other cyber criminals he has working for him, but Turkey鈥檚 economy isn鈥檛 so advanced or networked that it would cause irreparable harm. Moscow officials have already ruled out cutting off Turkey鈥檚 access to Russia鈥檚 natural gas, which feeds more than half its NG needs; with tumbling energy prices Putin can鈥檛 afford to lose an important customer, shoot down or no shoot down.
The truth is, the Turks don鈥檛 intimidate so easily 鈥� and they have cards to play in a confrontation with Putin.
They control the Bosporus Straits through which Putin鈥檚 budding expeditionary force in Syria has to be supplied and reinforced. They have an army and air force that are tough and reliable and, above all, integrated with those of other NATO countries, including the United States. An American president who persuades other NATO leaders to evoke Article 5 of the organization鈥檚 collective defense obligations in defense of Turkey, could shift the balance of military deterrence sharply to Istanbul鈥檚 side.
Besides, the fact that the Turkish government was willing to shoot down the Su-24 fighter, and then boast about it afterwards, suggests they don鈥檛 view Putin as the great colossus of the East that many in Europe do 鈥� or even in this country, starting with President Obama. Since coming to office, Obama鈥檚 entire foreign policy has been predicated on the belief that Russia matters more, and has more international leverage, than it really does. The whole 鈥淩eset鈥� strategy with Russia Obama and then鈥揝ecretary of State Hillary Clinton set in motion sprang from that flawed thinking. It鈥檚 what led to the dismantling of plans for an anti-ballistic missile defense corridor for Eastern Europe; the tepid response to Putin鈥檚 aggression in Crimea and Ukraine; and of course the entire Iran nuclear deal, which presupposes Russian cooperation and support in shutting down Iran鈥檚 nuclear-weapons program.
From where a reasonable observer sits, Russia and Vladimir Putin don鈥檛 look so formidable. His response to ISIS鈥檚 blowing up of a Russian airliner killing 224, has been slow and hesitant, compared to the US鈥檚 response to 9/11 or even the French and Belgian police reaction to the attack in Paris two weeks ago. His expeditionary force in Syria arrived with impressive speed and firepower; but there鈥檚 no indication that鈥檚 it鈥檚 tipped the balance of the fighting, certainly not against ISIS, Putin鈥檚 declared Number One enemy. Also, the Russian Air Force鈥檚 meager supply of precision guided munitions means they have to do a lot of bombing runs, and drop a lot of bombs, in order to do the kind of damage that a handful of sorties by US F-18鈥檚 or B-2鈥檚 can do鈥攚ith a lot more collateral damage.
With some American push back, Putin鈥檚 intervention in Syria could turn into as disastrous a fiasco as Russia鈥檚 intervention in Afghanistan three decades ago. Russia itself is on the brink of bankruptcy; its military and entire economy are built on the necessity of $100 a barrel oil at a time when oil struggles to stay above $50 a barrel. A foreign adventure turned sour, could tip Putin鈥檚 regime over the edge.
America isn鈥檛 weak; its leadership is. The next president who understands that can turn this game around, including in the Middle East.