__Much like Macron, the fresh-faced Austrian leader rose to political prominence amid a surge of European populism鈥攁nd is testing a new way to handle the challenge.__
p(firstLetter). The European Union is turning into something of a political science laboratory these days, with each country offering varying experiments and test cases in how to handle a resurgence of populism. The average citizen might be worried, but it鈥檚 a gold mine for the analyst.
Consider Austria. After winning the parliamentary elections on Sunday, Sebastian Kurz has become, at 31, the youngest head of government in the world. His rise is astonishing. A young conservative activist elected to parliament at 27, he was then appointed Foreign Affairs and Social Integration Minister before taking over the 脰VP and leading it to electoral victory. He did so in part through a personal rebranding effort: renaming the People鈥檚 Party as the 鈥淪ebastian Kurz List鈥� for the election, changing the party鈥檚 colors, and claiming the mantle of a 鈥淣ew People鈥檚 Party.鈥� At a time of global backlash against incumbent elites, his fresh face and promise of renewal were a large part of his appeal.
There鈥檚 more to Kurz, however, than his youth and novelty alone. The key to his success has been his ability to capture some of the themes of the far Right without, so far, stooping to toxic nativism or anti-European rhetoric.
At first glance, this claim may surprise, given the prevailing narrative about Austria鈥檚 new leader. Kurz is well known for his tough rhetoric on immigration, his authorship of Austria鈥檚 2015 Islam law and his support for banning the niqab. Moreover, he is poised to put an end to a tradition of Grand Coalitions between the 脰VP and the center-left SP脰, instead forming a coalition with the far-right FP脰, which finished a close third on Sunday with 26% of the vote. FP脰 was founded by a former SS officer and has a history of toxic nationalism. As Alina Polyakova has , it is openly pro-Putin and even signed a cooperation agreement with his party, United Russia.
But Kurz himself as far-right or a populist is not only wrong; it misses the point. As minister and as a candidate, Kurz has successfully stolen votes from FP脰 by offering tough language but pragmatic solutions to some of the far Right鈥檚 key issues, especially immigration. And he seems to have better instincts for navigating this political terrain than more seasoned politicos.
p(firstLetter). Much like Emmanuel Macron in France, Kurz came of age politically as the rise of populism became the defining challenge for mainstream parties. Both leaders have seen their share of populist scares: in 2014, a few months before Macron was appointed France鈥檚 economics minister, the National Front won the European Parliament election, its first electoral triumph at a national level. And in Austria鈥檚 re-run election last December, FP脰鈥檚 Norbert Hofer garnered 46% in the second round of the presidential election. In both cases, the European Union鈥檚 myriad crises and failures (especially on migration) allowed the far Right鈥檚 rhetoric on Islam, immigration and the EU to take hold among a much larger audience than usual.
How should other parties react? The trade-offs are well-known: if mainstream parties ignore or deny voter concerns over identity and immigration, they risk leaving a monopoly to populists. Chasing after populists, on the other hand, can let extremists shape the agenda, tainting mainstream parties with nativism. Both strategies are self-defeating. As Jean-Marie Le Pen often said to mock center-right efforts to co-opt his message, voters will always end up preferring the original to the copy.
Macron, who unlike Kurz is not a conservative, chose to explicitly shape his political narrative as a direct liberal and pro-EU alternative to the National Front. As he indicated in a recent Der Spiegel , Macron鈥檚 approach was 鈥渢o say, these people are my true enemies and to engage them in battle.鈥� But such an approach is not without risk. By bringing the center-left and center-right together, it leaves the extremes as the only true opposition.
Kurz has chosen a different tack, seeking to address the far Right鈥檚 concerns while steering clear of overt Euroskepticism or racism. So far, it seems to be a winning formula: surveys have shown the FP脰 would have had a stronger showing with another 脰VP candidate. Kurz鈥檚 approach may yet prove another model for other European center-right politicians who want to defeat extremists.
p(firstLetter). This is not to say that his path forward will be an easy one. Unlike Macron, whose political persona rests on the advocacy of an 鈥渙pen鈥� France over a 鈥渃losed鈥� one, Kurz is a conservative, operating within a traditional right-left divide. In that context, he will have to fight both the Left鈥檚 multicultural discourse (which has cost it dearly with voters) and the far Right鈥檚 simplistic rhetoric. The incumbent chancellor, Christian Kern, has been unable, and unwilling, to tackle the migration issue, leaving a wide space to the right.
So far, Kurz has been able to thread the needle, emerging as a strong voice against the EU鈥檚 refugee policy while offering proposals that are a far cry from hardline demands to revert back to national borders and abandon the Schengen Area. Despite being accused (often rightly) of copying the FP脰鈥檚 rhetoric, Kurz advocates European solutions, and has for the creation of EU 鈥渂attle groups鈥� to secure the EU鈥檚 external borders. He has also been a strong advocate of closing down the Balkan route. In both of these policies, Kurz seems to grasp an important political reality: if mainstream conservatives want to rally voters behind the European Union鈥檚 internal open borders, they need to prove the EU can at least secure its external borders. Kurz likewise recognizes that national governments must do their part in creating a viable assimilation strategy; hence, his 50-point to ensure the integration of asylum seekers, with a special emphasis on language and education.
Kurz was also the inspiration behind the 2015 reform to Austria鈥檚 1912 鈥淚slam law鈥� regulating Muslim worship. The reform is often dubbed 鈥溾�, yet it was also praised as a potential example to emulate by Institut Montaigne, a French centrist free-market think tank that is close to Macron, in its 2016 鈥淎 French Islam is Possible.鈥� The report argues that the 2015 law鈥攖he product of years of debates and working groups鈥攅ffectively balances strong legal protections for Muslims with the promotion of a strictly endogenous practice. Hence, the law forbids foreign funding to mosques, creates a theological training center at the University of Vienna to ensure imams speak German, and provides a strict framework to ensure the primacy of Austrian law over religious requirements. At the same time, the law officially recognizes Muslims鈥� right to worship, protects religious holidays, provides legal status to religious cemeteries, and calls for the respect of halal dietary prescriptions in public institutions. The objective was to promote and secure the status of Austrian Muslims while rolling back extremism and foreign influence.
The same can be said of Kurz鈥檚 support for a ban on the niqab and burka. Kurz the proposed ban by saying 鈥渁 full body veil is hindering integration鈥�, adding the burka was 鈥渘ot a religious symbol but a symbol for a counter-society.鈥� Such a ban would not fit with American mores, but Austria is hardly the first country to pass such a measure, which is broadly by European public opinion. France, Bulgaria, and Belgium already forbid the niqab; other countries such as the Netherlands and Switzerland have passed restrictive measures in certain contexts. Angela Merkel has a partial burka ban in Germany. To be sure, such measures are supported by extremists uncomfortable with any expression of Islam in European societies. But the bans also receive support from progressives and feminists who are understandably troubled by the requirement that women should hide in public spaces. Only a small minority of women are affected by such measures, which aim to discourage fringe practices while allowing the majority to practice peacefully. Contrary to the far Right, Kurz doesn鈥檛 seem to deny the evolution of his society, but wants to find a balance with the concerns of the population at large.
p(firstLetter). Populists are forcing mainstream parties to grapple with themes of borders, identity, and security that they have too conveniently ignored for decades. Technical disputes over the management of the welfare state can no longer be the prime concern of European debate; politics are back with a vengeance on a continent that thought it could transcend them. And though strategies to address this challenge will vary, moral grandstanding or denial won鈥檛 cut it.
Austria鈥檚 young chancellor walks a fine line. European conservatives like David Cameron know the risks of trying to seize some of the populist agenda. The former British Prime Minister was right to think that the promise of a referendum on EU membership would help rein in UKIP and his own party鈥檚 Euroskeptics at the 2015 general election. He won re-election handily. A year later, he was out of office after losing said referendum. By co-opting some populist ideas in an attempt to tame the beast, he instead let it take over.
Ruling with FP脰 will likewise be a challenge. It is unclear if Kurz will have the ideological spine or the political agility to avoid letting extremists shape his agenda on issues like the EU or relations with Russia. Does he represent a new generation of European conservatives, bridging the gap between political leaders and their publics? Or will he end up just another electoral opportunist running after the far Right? Time will tell鈥攁nd the rest of Europe will be watching.