This article was originally published in German in the
Earlier this month, the influential head of the Social Democratic Party鈥檚 (SPD) parliamentary group, Rolf M眉tzenich, for the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Germany and an end to Germany鈥檚 participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization鈥檚 (NATO) nuclear sharing arrangements, a contentious debate within the SPD. But as M眉tzenich鈥檚 party colleague, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, noted, such consequential steps, if they were ever decided, should not be taken unilaterally. Instead, they the input of allies.
As American analysts of national security affairs, we agree. And as veterans of the last Republican and Democratic presidential administrations, respectively, we can say with certainty: Germany鈥檚 participation in nuclear sharing is a bipartisan American objective of the highest order. We also believe it is in Germany鈥檚 national interest, because without German participation in NATO鈥檚 nuclear mission, the European continent will grow more dangerous and less stable.
To see why, let us examine M眉tzenich鈥檚 proposal, which he anchors in two arguments. First, he states that the American decision to modernize its nuclear arsenal is accelerating an arms race, thereby endangering European security. Instead of buying expensive American fighter jets to deliver nuclear weapons, he says, Germany should be an advocate for arms control and disarmament.
Unfortunately, the arms race M眉tzenich fears has long been underway鈥攁nd not because of the United States. Over the past fifteen years, Russia has heavily in all aspects of its nuclear forces, but notably in so-called nonstrategic weapons that are designed to reach nearby targets in Europe. These include short-, medium-, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles as well as newly developed air-, sea-, and ground-launched cruise missiles. In fact, when the Russian 9M729 cruise missile threatened the future of the INF Treaty, Moscow went ahead and deployed it anyway. This led directly to the demise of the treaty. As a result, none of Russia鈥檚 medium- and intermediate-range ballistic or cruise missile capabilities are constrained by arms control agreements.
This would not be nearly as concerning if Russia were a flourishing democracy at peace with the West. However, under Vladimir Putin, Russia has launched wars against Georgia and Ukraine, forcibly changing the borders of Europe for the first time since the end of the Cold War. 鈥淚t鈥檚 best not to mess with us,鈥� Putin during the height of the Ukraine crisis. 鈥淩ussia is one of the leading nuclear powers.鈥� Such blunt attempts at nuclear blackmail are a of Russian diplomacy. To make sure its messages are received across Europe, Russia turns its nuclear warnings into action: a few years ago, for example, its air force a large-scale nuclear strike on Stockholm.
Even so, Russia鈥檚 foreign policy belligerence and growing nuclear arsenal do not preclude targeted risk reduction measures, or even arms control, with the West. But for such initiatives to bear fruit, Moscow needs incentives. The B61 bomb, delivered by dual-capable aircraft, is currently NATO鈥檚 only modernized, nonstrategic nuclear weapon. If Germany turns its back on that effort, Moscow will have little reason to agree to any controls on its own arsenal. To repurpose a phrase from US President Harry Truman, nuclear capabilities and arms control are 鈥渢wo halves of the same walnut.鈥� Paradoxically, therefore, Germany鈥檚 contribution to nuclear sharing not only contributes to deterrence, but represents the clearest path to precisely what M眉tzenich desires, namely limits on nuclear weapons.
M眉tzenich鈥檚 second argument is that Germany鈥檚 participation in nuclear sharing yields little political benefit. To be sure, ordering the Americans to withdraw their nuclear weapons may upset Washington, he concedes, but as a member of NATO鈥檚 Nuclear Planning Group, Berlin鈥檚 input into U.S. and alliance strategy would not be significantly diminished.
At first blush, this argument seems persuasive, but it misses one key point: Germany鈥檚 Today, Germany has grown into Europe鈥檚 biggest and most important country. It is the linchpin of NATO鈥檚 nuclear policy. Germans may not always fully appreciate their own power, or feel comfortable discussing its military dimensions, but the rest of Europe takes careful note of Berlin鈥檚 decisions. If Germany surrendered its nuclear mission, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy may not be far behind. The entire nuclear sharing agreement could unravel, prompting eastern European states like Poland to their own role in NATO鈥檚 nuclear mission. The US frustration with Germany鈥檚 lagging military capabilities, which contributed to the Trump administation鈥檚 recent decision to remove one-third of US troops from Germany, would only grow. Meanwhile, Russia would almost certainly interpret Germany鈥檚 decision as weakness and move to exacerbate tensions within the alliance. At a minimum, NATO could expect Russian meddling to increase in eastern Europe, Germany鈥檚 near abroad. This would threaten the peace and security of the entire continent.
As the second wealthiest country within NATO, Germany must share in the responsibilities of the alliance. That includes nuclear deterrence. Of course, the US, but also the German air force, would have preferred if Germany, like the other nuclear sharing countries, had decided to fulfill its nuclear mission by acquiring the F-35 fighter jet, a fifth-generation plane that can operate in highly contested air defense environments. However, with the decision to acquire the less advanced F-18 fighter, Germany will have to rely on it as a stopgap solution to perform the alliance nuclear mission. But what Berlin cannot do without triggering negative developments across Europe is ditch the nuclear mission altogether.
In the late 1970s, it was an SPD chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, who pushed NATO to adopt the famous 鈥淒ouble Track鈥� decision. Although controversial at the time, the deployment of US intermediate-range missiles into Europe eventually yielded the INF Treaty. The world has changed in fundamental ways over the intervening forty years, but one thing remains the same: Germany matters. As a new generation of SPD leaders launches another debate over the country鈥檚 nuclear strategy, permit two American observers to remind German readers of one thing: your decisions reverberate from Moscow to Washington. Choose wisely.
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