The Chinese military will likely attack Taiwan within six years, Adm. Phil Davidson, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress in March, just before retiring from the Navy. More generally, he said, Beijing鈥檚 long-term objective鈥攕upplanting the U.S. and remaking the global order to benefit the Chinese Communist Party鈥攚ill feature confrontation.
Adm. Davidson鈥檚 assessment is the clearest articulation of contemporary strategic realities by a major government or military official in the past decade. China is showing its ambitions, increasing its assertiveness in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and ratcheting up military pressure against Taiwan. The Chinese strategic tradition prizes both patience and decisive action when the balance of forces appears favorable.
The implication of Adm. Davidson鈥檚 assessment鈥攁nd a similar one offered this spring by his successor, Adm. John Aquilino鈥攊s that any major reduction in U.S. combat strength, particularly naval power, will tempt the Chinese Communist Party to strike.
This assessment should inform the Navy鈥檚 recently announced 鈥渄ivest to invest鈥� plan. The Navy will 鈥渄ivest鈥� from older, larger platforms such as the Ticonderoga-class cruiser and reduce its large surface combatant force, including Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, by around one-third.
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