The press is going wild today about the ruling of the international court in the Hague, which went even farther than predicted in throwing cold water on China鈥檚 shaky claims to control vast stretches of international waters in the strategically vital South China Sea. The WSJ
The tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague said China couldn鈥檛 claim historic rights in all the waters within a 鈥渘ine-dash鈥� line used by Beijing to delineate its claims.
That was the most significant element of an unprecedented legal challenge to China鈥檚 claims that was brought in 2013 by the Philippines, one of five governments whose claims in the South China Sea overlap with China鈥檚 under the nine-dash line.
China didn鈥檛 take part in the tribunal, which it said had no jurisdiction on the case, and Chinese officials immediately said that Beijing won鈥檛 comply with the ruling, a position it had repeated for weeks.
In a further blow for Beijing, the tribunal said China isn鈥檛 entitled to an exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, extending up to 200 nautical miles from any outcrop in the Spratly Islands archipelago, and said Beijing had violated the Philippines鈥� sovereignty in building artificial islands. It also took Beijing to task for failing to stop Chinese fishermen from harvesting endangered sea turtles and coral and impeding Philippine fishing and oil exploration.
Everyone is focusing on the ruling鈥檚 language, which is pretty tough on China, but less attention is being paid to the reality that the case hangs from pretty weak thread: the commitment of the Philippines to stand by the ruling.
The Philippines鈥� recently-elected President, Roberto Duterte, more interested in making deals with China than in standing as the spear tip of an international coalition against it. Before the election, he reporters, 鈥淚 would say to China, 鈥榙o not claim anything here and I will not insist also that it is ours鈥�. But then I will just keep (turn) a blind eye.鈥�
Washington has spent a lot of resources strengthening its alliance with Manila over the past few years, selling old ships to bolster its navy and arranging for American troops to rotate through bases in the country. But it鈥檚 not at all clear that the Philippines is ready to play the role that the U.S. wants it to play. Unless the Obama administration wants to see its Asia policy fall into serious disarray, it needs to find a way to ensure that the Philippines thinks its interests are better served by standing with the international court than by cutting a deal with China.