Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the Russia-Ukraine War.
Executive Summary
- Chinese soldiers in Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed that as many as 150 Chinese citizens may be fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
- New German aid package: Germany committed to send air defense systems to Ukraine as part of a large military assistance package.
- Russia鈥檚 next move: Russian forces remained on an offensive footing across multiple flashpoints, likely in preparation for a large-scale push in the coming weeks.
1. Chinese Citizens Fighting in Ukraine
Last week President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukrainian forces had captured Chinese citizens fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
Based on interrogations of two detained Chinese nationals, Ukrainian officials suspect that up to are fighting alongside Russian units in Ukraine. Officials from the United States believe these fighters to be mercenaries. But Beijing has also sent People鈥檚 Liberation Army officers to study the war from .
So far, China鈥檚 most important material support to the Kremlin has been its provision of machine tools to help Russia manufacture arms. Whether Beijing will follow North Korea鈥檚 lead and send additional military personnel to join the fight remains to be seen.
2. Germany鈥檚 New Military Assistance Package
The German Ministry of Defense announced a new , agreeing to supply Kyiv with over 鈧�11 billion in assistance. The package includes IRIS air defense systems, Patriot interceptors, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), ground surveillance radars, artillery, land warfare assets, and up to 130,000 rounds of 155mm-class ammunition.
Previous editions of this report have highlighted how Russia has increased the pace of its aerial attacks in recent weeks. Germany鈥檚 pledge of assistance therefore comes at a time of great need for Ukraine.
The is no surprise to analysts monitoring growing defense ties between Berlin and Kyiv. In early March Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov signed a memorandum of understanding with Diehl Defense, the German arms manufacturer that produces the missiles used in the IRIS air defense system.
IRIS-T-baseline surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) are playing an increasingly prominent role in defending Ukraine. This German system evolved from IRIS-T air-to-air missiles and was . It is effective against loitering munitions and cruise missiles, including assets with low radar signatures. The more prominent version, the IRIS-T SLS, provides , while the mid-range variant, the IRIS-T SLM, boasts a larger operational .
and emphasize its reliability. Nonetheless, Ukraine will likely continue to rely on American Patriot systems against Russia鈥檚 ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. As a result, Germany will not be able to unilaterally supply Ukraine with the munitions it needs to defend its airspace.
A plans to start producing a variant of the Patriot interceptor . But until then, Berlin will rely on American manufacturers to replenish its Patriot supplies. Meanwhile, as Russian air strikes continue to pound Ukraine, other European nations for more Patriot batteries and interceptors.
3. Battlefield Assessment
The Russian military maintained an offensive footing in Ukraine this week. Russian forces in the Sumy region of Ukraine, while Kupiansk and Lyman also saw heavy combat.
Ukrainian forces in , which have long been flashpoints, also faced renewed Russian tactical pressure. Chasiv Yar, a town in Ukraine that by now has been reduced largely to rubble, also .
To counter manpower shortages, the Ukrainian General Staff its Contract 18鈥�24 volunteer recruitment program. Ukraine鈥檚 Unmanned Systems Forces also on Russian air defenses.
Defense intelligence indicators suggest that the Russian military for a reloaded large-scale push into Ukrainian lines in the coming weeks. The most plausible focus of such an offensive would be eastern Ukraine, the conquest of which was a chief objective of Russia鈥檚 initial invasion campaign. Russian efforts to establish footholds around the Oskil River near Kharkiv suggest that the Kremlin鈥檚 forces may target that city soon.
The Russian military has now amassed around 623,000 servicemen in Ukraine and generated hundreds of thousands to reinforce the front lines.